011-mark-mills

AUGMENTED REALITY AND ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE

A discussion with Mark Mills

Connect with Mark Mills 

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https://www.manhattan-institute.org/expert/mark-p-mills

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John DeBevoise:Greetings, everyone, and welcome to another serving of Bizness Soup Talk Radio. If it’s in business, it’s Bizness Soup. I’m your host, John DeBevoise. What does artificial intelligence mean to the small business owner, and what does it hold for our future?

John DeBevoise:From the book Work in the Age of Robots, our guest Mark Mills talks about the past, the present and the future of artificial intelligence, and how it’s going to be impacting us, the small business owner. Don’t worry, folks. Robots are not going to take over the world just yet.

John DeBevoise:Greetings, Mark. Welcome to the program.

Mark Mills:Thanks for having me. I’m looking forward to this.

John DeBevoise:Mark, you have been involved in small business and working between small and large business, and you came up with this book, Work in the Age of Robots. How did this evolve into a book that you felt was necessary to share with not only my audience, but the audience of the world through the eyes of the gorilla?

Mark Mills:The short answer is the constant drumbeat in the popular media, and a good deal from the academic domains and the punditocracy, with the claim that robots and artificial intelligence are on the verge of eliminating most, if not all work. And that constant tread, in fact, there’s more than a dozen respected studies that are all saying various forms of the same thing, that in effect, this time is different.

Mark Mills:In other words, the technologies that have made labor-saving the central feature of a growing economy for 1000 years, the technologies this time are different, because instead of creating more work, which is what’s happened for 1000 years, this time they’re going to eliminate work.

Mark Mills:That idea, which is very popular, is fundamentally so silly that one has to write about. That’s what I did. Of course, I should stipulate it’s a short book. This particular type of book series that the publisher Encounter has is about one-third the length of a standard book, with the intention that people might actually pick it up and read it because it’s a single read on a short flight.

John DeBevoise:Well, you know what? You’re right, because you were nice enough to send me your book and I’m going, “Wow, this is an easy read.” But you know what? I don’t recall seeing any of your $10 words that you just used, “punditocracy” or … That’s a $10 word up there, you know?

Mark Mills:That one will cost you $25, right there. That’s twice the price of the book.

John DeBevoise:Essentially, history has demonstrated that when it comes to these technological advancements, that most forecasters get both the what and the when wrong. And at a Consumer Electronics Show, for those in my audience that have been there, good for you. For those who haven’t, go.

John DeBevoise:It is the big boy toy box and it happens around the first week of the new year. And this is where you see the evolution of things to come. This is where I think Schwarzenegger gets his ideas for his over-the-top type of graphics on his movies.

John DeBevoise:But you see things that you think, “Wow, that’s really cool,” like the big flat screen TVs that came out a decade ago. I saw them first at Consumer Electronics Show. One of the things that I have noticed is virtual reality.

John DeBevoise:The gaming industry has taken it first, that I noticed, at a Consumer Electronics Show, but now it’s expanding into other areas and into small business. Mark, where do you see AI and the use of that into robotics implemented for the use in small business?

Mark Mills:You put your finger on two things, which are important. And I agree with you in the sense that the CES, the Consumer Electronics Show, is a great way to see the tip of the spear, if you like, technologies that are coming, for many technologies. Not all. I’ll tell you where I go hunting in a second.

Mark Mills:But you see them there because consumers, in a weird way, will tolerate a far less reliable product than the industrial market, for obvious reasons. If you’re in an industrial environment, you’re in a business environment, your tool has to work for a long time. It has to be very cost-effective.

Mark Mills:When it’s a toy, not to trivialize toys, because the entertainment industry is a trillion-dollar industry, people are more quixotic and tolerable of things that might break or you have to work hard at. So it’s a great place to see early technologies like virtual reality and augmented reality.

Mark Mills:This is what the combination of the tools that let you augment reality or virtualize reality with artificial intelligence, which is the super computer in the cloud. Those two things together essentially, to use the popular word now, upscale labor.

Mark Mills:In other words, somebody who doesn’t have a particularly deep knowledge about a subject matter that you care about as an employer, your employee now can use tools, virtual reality, augmented reality and super computing, to seamlessly, easily, almost trivially, learn new things, understand things, have additional skills in real time.

Mark Mills:I’ll give you an example. If you’re trying to wire a house, you’re a small electrical business, and you come up with a tough problem and you want to solve that problem. And by the way, Boeing already does this with aircraft. If you have real-time wireless connectivity, it’s called cell phone, if you have that and you really had useful augmented reality and useful artificial intelligence.

Mark Mills:By “useful,” I mean you can verbally address it much more easily than you could, say, Siri and Alexa. If you’re a work-a-day electrician and you come up with a tough problem, you want to be able to say, “Look. How do I solve this problem?” And you look at the problem.

Mark Mills:Your phone looks at the problem with you in real time, can in real time, in the cloud, the super computer can look for other comparable problems and project onto the problem in the real space in front of you, virtually, what you might do to fix that, or how you would fix it, both visually or auditorially.

Mark Mills:And it could even walk u through the solution step-by-step. That kind of virtualization of skills and skill support from the cloud is now real. It’s very difficult to do at the level I’m describing. So far, it’s expensive, but we’re doing that for the military already. We’re doing that in some medical domains.

Mark Mills:As I said, Boeing assists the technicians that lay the cables in the aircraft is they build them through augmented reality like that. So those things are coming. As they get cheap, and you know they’ll get cheap because we’re talking IT here. As they get cheap, they get democratized and they become available not just to the Boeings of the world or to expensive medical procedures or to the military.

Mark Mills:They become available to everybody. Small businesses, and small businesses have that advantage that they can then now compete with Boeings, in terms of skill sets, in terms of quality control, in terms of having the latest skills, the latest knowledge.

Mark Mills:Go back to 1970s. In 1970s, there were computers in the world. There were thousands and thousands of mainframes being sold annually. Computers then allowed large businesses, banks and universities, large GE-type companies, the BPs and Exxons of the world, they could use computers to do things that small businesses couldn’t, because you couldn’t afford a mainframe.

Mark Mills:Everybody got a computer within about another 15 to 20 years. Augmented reality will follow the same trajectory for the same kind of reasons, because it’s fundamentally an information tool. So the kinds of phenomenal augmented reality that you see in Microsoft’s HoloLens, that if the listeners have never googled up and looked at on the web what Microsoft is doing, what they call HoloLens, you obviously know they stole the name from Star Trek and the Holodeck, right?

Mark Mills:Good for them. But HoloLens is a augmented reality tool that’s being used in military and medicine and high-end areas, which allows for example, doctors to see a very realistic, life-sized model of an organ on which they are about to perform surgery, and could begin to sort of think and rotate and literally, almost touch that organ suspended in space in front of them as they look at, thinking about what the problem is.

Mark Mills:And remember, the organ has been imaged by a high-resolution MRI machine, so now you’re looking at this part of your body as a physician, and thinking about how you’re going to perform this surgery, before you actually perform a cut. And that’s a very powerful tool.

Mark Mills:In fact, it’s already been used for some complex surgeries to think about how to solve a problem before you actually undertake the problem. So imagine that kind of capability for any business, any retail operation, but inexpensive and as accessible as your smartphone. That’s not going to happen tomorrow, but it’s going to certainly happen in the lifetime of almost everybody listening.

John DeBevoise:You make an excellent point in that this isn’t so much an effort to eliminate the workforce. It’s more of a workplace revolution, where you’re empowering … Technology and the robotics and artificial intelligence is empowering the entrepreneurs on how they can address a single issue without having to go out and invent the product.

John DeBevoise:They can utilize that technology that is available to them into their specific use or their need in their small business. And there’s tremendous opportunity for an entrepreneur to make a fortune just using somebody else’s idea in a different capability to make a job easier to do, streamline it, and have massive duplication of one effort.

John DeBevoise:And we’re speaking with Mark Mills, who is the author of Work in the Age of Robots. As to the implementation of this technology, where do you see some of the forthcoming implementations occurring? Is it going to be medical, aviation, transportation? What are some of the low-hanging fruit in the use of robots and this technology?

Mark Mills:Of course, that’s the right question. If you’re an entrepreneur or let’s say you’re the inventor, you want to know who’s going to buy your product first. And if you’re a user, you want to know when the product, whether it’s artificial intelligence or a physical robot are going to be available.

Mark Mills:Let me make another point quickly, because this is … I don’t know if it’s the answer to the question, but what we’re really talking about are “cobots.” It’s a phrase created by a couple Northwestern professors, Colgate and a colleague, 20 years ago.

Mark Mills:Their idea, which is being realized and how the world is really operating, is the the most valuable robots are not robots that replace people. They’re robots that collaborate and work with people, amplify them, so they call them “cobots.”

Mark Mills:Turns out, a cobot is a little hard to build. So a virtual cobot, of course, is a thing like Siri or Alexa, right? Google Voice. Those things are essentially cobots. You can ask questions in a natural language and learn something.

Mark Mills:And the better they get, the easier they’ll be as cobots, whether it’s a field base question or whether it’s just an operational that somebody who’s working in retail and they want to get the answer to a question related to inventory. Wouldn’t it be nice to have to type in a keyboard? You simply ask the virtual assistant.

Mark Mills:So the intelligence virtual assistant, the IVA is a consumer product, which is what the Alexa is, the cobot that’s physical, which is the one that fascinates people the most, I think, is the assembly line product, let’s say. Or it’s the … We’ll go back to the electrician or the plumber.

Mark Mills:When I was young, I worked in construction. Because think, how many times did you want a third hand, right? I mean, you’re doing your tasks and you just don’t have enough hands to do it. And you get somebody else to help you.

Mark Mills:A cobot is literally the third hand. In fact, one of the cobot inventors has made a product that looks like a third hand that for certain kinds of tasks, you physically wear. You strap it on. It looks like a compliant prosthetic hand on an arm that learns the task.

Mark Mills:You literally teach your third hand the task you’re doing. Let’s say you’re lifting up a pipe and need an extra hand to hold it while you’re welding. That kind of product sounds sort of crazy, but it’s actually real. It’s a cobot kind of product.

Mark Mills:As those things become cheaper, and they’re becoming cheaper quickly, and easy to use, that leads to the obvious. If you’re a business in the construction trade, you don’t fire people. It means instead of hiring three people, you might hire two people.

Mark Mills:So you look at this as we have, this classic phenomenon that’s gone on, as we talked about earlier, for hundreds of years. The net benefit to the economy and to your business is that you’re more productive, making more money, you’re hiring more people.

Mark Mills:But you aren’t hiring exactly the same number of people per task. The thing that we always want, if you’re a business owner, if you’re an economist talking about the economy, you always want to have fewer labor hours consumed to produce a specific product or service. That’s the goal, and that’s what automation’s always about.

Mark Mills:That’s still the goal, but the effect of that goal is that businesses become more profitable, and you become more profitable. You grow, and you do something that I consider unintentional consequence of a growing small business. The unintentional consequence is you hire more people.

Mark Mills:Small businesses don’t mean to hire more people. They hire them because they have to, if you think about it. If you grow, you need people. Big businesses have the opposite dynamic. Big businesses, their primary goal is to fire people, because they’re already big and they’re trying to cut costs by reducing the number of people.

Mark Mills:That’s why, as you all know, small businesses are considered the engine of growth for jobs. It’s not because they’re more moral, in a sense. It’s because, I’m being slightly facetious, they have no choice.

Mark Mills:If you grow, even if you have cobots and intelligent virtual assistants, you’ll still need people. So you’ll grow faster if you have more productive tools. Saying that you have more productive tools is a direct synonym for using more automation.

John DeBevoise:Well, and as I use all the time in my statements, that there’s nothing in our life that doesn’t have a small business, even the air that we breathe. Robots are not going to take the place of the HVAC, the heating and air conditioning units. The service techs, they’re not going to be climbing up the ladders and servicing the air conditioners any time soon.

John DeBevoise:So this type of technology, I’m seeing implemented in one of my segments of restaurants. Being able to have artificial intelligence and robots in the restaurant business has been very effective, particularly when it comes to the financial aspects.

John DeBevoise:Inventory, tracking your inventory, making sure it’s not walking out the door. Being able to do a cost analysis on the fly of what every serving costs. It’s fascinating what I see in companies that are pitching me and the angel groups that I’m involved with, and it’s all based upon artificial intelligence. And you can’t have a robot without artificial intelligence.

Mark Mills:Exactly right. So very simplistic, automated machines, from the early days of automation, didn’t have what we call artificial intelligence. You automate a highly repetitive task. What you’re describing are these more difficult and more complex and sometimes amorphous tasks.

Mark Mills:Not just how much stuff is in inventory, but what you want your artificial intelligence systems to do is to do what Google Maps does, which is effectively look forward in time based on history, and make a guess at when traffic is going to increase in your restaurant.

Mark Mills:You have a lot of data on that, the intelligence virtual assistant, the AI can make a prediction based on your personal business’s history as well as what’s going on geographically with respect to the weather, because there’s weather correlations with restaurants. It can look at other events which are considered, the technical term would be “orthogonal events.”

Mark Mills:There’s a conference in town that will draw people away or attract people to your restaurant. Those data are all available in the cloud. An intelligence virtual assistant’s AI would look at all that, and inform you in your specific business where you are in your city, that you should probably a little surge in traffic, or a little fall-off in traffic, which would allow you to decide whether to bring in extra help that day, or not have them come in.

Mark Mills:Those are all exactly what I’m sure you’re seeing. The other part, the physical side, the physical delivery of the foodstuff, the cleaning of the equipment, those things are also starting to get semi-automated.

Mark Mills:Turns out they’re much more difficult. As I write in my book, the idea that we’re going to have Terminator-type robots walking around doing physical labor in the near future is just silly, because … Not that it won’t ever happen.

Mark Mills:We clearly now have in sight the classic Terminator kind of robots. Engineers call that the anthropomorphic robot, the walking, talking machine that looks sort of quasi-human. You’ve probably seen YouTube videos of some extremely clever and spookily realistic walking robots.

Mark Mills:They do exist, but they are very difficult to make. They cost millions of dollars each, and they are not amenable through very rapid cost reductions like a virtual robot, a piece of software, because just like a car, they’re made up of a lot of very complex components.

Mark Mills:So cars don’t get cheaper first. They get better, but they cost about the same. They’ve gotten cheaper over the last century, but not cheaper in the same way that computers have gotten cheaper. So the idea that suddenly, in the near future, physical robots that could replace people doing what you described, climbing up a ladder to repair an HVAC system, that that person would be replaced by a robot, is just silly.

John DeBevoise:And we talk about the implementation of this, and one of the first utilizations of technology that I came up with wasn’t the reinvention of a wheel. It was just putting a couple spokes in that wheel.

John DeBevoise:And for my audience out there, if you’re in a business, if you’re an entrepreneur, you own a business, and there’s an aspect of it where you see there’s a duplication of effort. I hate duplication of effort. Having to take that same information from one page and cut-and-paste or type it in a second or third time, as we often so do when we’re doing our taxes.

John DeBevoise:I hate duplication of effort. If you are a business owner and you are doing that, look at this subject of artificial intelligence, about robots perhaps, and think about, how could something in the realm of artificial intelligence, automation, make your job easier?

John DeBevoise:If it makes your job easier, there are thousands of other business out there that are likely to be able to adapt to your idea. I did it. I did it before the internet ever came up. I didn’t even know what the internet was when I developed what became an earlier internet company.

John DeBevoise:And I mistakenly sold that business, which led me to this radio program to tell you about all the trials and tribulations I went through, to share that information so you don’t make the same mistakes I made, but I share the experts, such as our guest Mark Mills, on Work in the Age of Robots.

John DeBevoise:Mark, as I talked off-air, the technology of some aspects still use old school. One of my great ancestors invented the cotton gin. Eli Whitney. I had nothing to do with that, but that great invention was still powered by a horse-drawn cart.

John DeBevoise:It’s not always that the technology takes over. It assists you, and in the case of the cotton gin, it was horse-drawn wagon that created the cotton gin that helped create the technology that empowered the south to create more cotton. How do you see the next generation of the robots and perhaps, in the next two to three years, where do you see the biggest insurgent of this technology occurring?

Mark Mills:The irony is, probably agriculture. It’s already happening. Just like the cotton gin. We’ve been trying to automate agriculture, just like your great ancestor, for a very long time, because we really do want to take the labor per unit of food out of production. You really would rather have the labor in the restaurant than in the fields.

Mark Mills:Human beings have wanted to do that for centuries. So the equivalent of cotton gins are showing up in the agricultural fields. Pickers. It’s been one of the most difficult tasks, for a physical robot, is picking fruits and vegetables that you can’t damage when you pick them.

Mark Mills:So there are now grape and fruit-pickers, robots that can run down the rows of a field and do picking. Now, you could say that eliminates labor for people who are the hand pickers. That’s true. That’s what Eli Whitney wanted to do.

Mark Mills:And will that reduce the labor in the fields? Yes, of course it will. So the number of people who work in farming today, which is low, will continue to decline. We’ve already seen this on the information side, where the kinds of tools you have as a farmer, the information tools that can use a combination of sensors, sensors that are increasingly becoming literally dust.

Mark Mills:You could imagine now making sensors that are so inexpensive that you’d dust them with the fertilizer from a drone onto the fields, and that those sensors now can determine the extent to which you should add more or not add more fertilizer, or what you should be doing to deal with blight. And that form of information automation is now happening in the farm fields.

Mark Mills:The other place we’d expect to see it sooner rather than later, of course, is a good example would be in the infrastructure of retail, which is being accelerated by Amazon Prime if you like, and everybody that competes with it, which is another way of saying the warehouses.

Mark Mills:Warehouses, if you follow this stuff in the business domain, the number of square foot of warehouses in the world has been exploding, and is exploding not just because people are buying more stuff, per se, but because the nature of distribution, which online is promoting, is increasing the need for warehousing.

Mark Mills:Amazon has been one of the pioneers of automating the warehouse with robots. Physical robots look like turtles at their company. They bought, 10 years ago, called Akita Systems. It looks like a automated turtle that picks up racks of goods and moves them around the warehouses.

Mark Mills:What Amazon has discovered is that you can have fewer people in the warehouse, but Amazon would also report in their quarterly earnings report that their total employee count has been rising constantly for the decade, including in warehouses.

Mark Mills:What they’ve done is, they’ve made warehousing so cost-efficient that you get free shipping. That’s the effect of that. So they employ more people. They’re more productive, and reduce the cost of acquiring goods by direct shipment.

Mark Mills:And let me add an interesting wrinkle to this for small businesses. For those who have not followed this trend, both UPS and Amazon, because of the supply chain efficacy they have, are working with small businesses to help small businesses either use that warehouse capability, or physically, literally physically locate manufacturing and assembly plants for boutique businesses inside the warehouses.

Mark Mills:So UPS does and Amazon, and I think FedEx does it now too. They would tell a small business, “Look. We’re really good at supply chain. You’re really good as a small businessman at innovating … or businesswoman, and building a boutique custom product. Put that manufacturing operation literally inside our supply chain hub in our warehouse.”

Mark Mills:And you form a partnership. They don’t buy your business. You just locate there, take advantage of the infrastructure that the robots create. And one day, I think the robots will get good enough that you won’t have to locate inside the warehouse. That’s possible.

Mark Mills:But basically, these kinds of economies of scale where automation brings of finding the warehousing, will benefit small businesses. That’s what allows to continue those sort of [inaudible] on where small businesses benefit.

Mark Mills:That’s what allows boutique farming to function. If the kind of automation that makes it cheap to run a farm requires you to be a large business because the equipment is huge and expensive, it doesn’t help the small farmer.

Mark Mills:The kind of automation we’re talking about, the kind of robot pickers, the kind of drones for monitoring the crop health or monitoring cattle, the kind of sensor systems that exist are getting cheap enough fast enough, that it essentially allows a small farmer, a small rancher to be cost-competitive with the big guy.

Mark Mills:That’s what I meant when I said earlier, this sort of artificial intelligence and automation democratizes technology in a way that advantages the small player.

John DeBevoise:Well, I do know that being in the cattle business, there’s a lot of technological advancements in the monitoring of our cattle with almost like monitors that you would put on any other animal that tracks them, and now we’re able to put them on each one of our cattle to find out not only where they’re at, but it will even report on their heart rate. We will know if they’re stressed, and …

Mark Mills:Exactly.

John DeBevoise:But you know what? We still have to get on a horse and go out and get them. So it doesn’t get any lower-tech than that.

Mark Mills:No, it doesn’t. But isn’t it nice, though, if you had the product the soldiers now have, if it gets cheap enough for you, that in your saddlebag on your horse, you might have three or four micro drones, palm-size drones, that when you want to go out and see how the cattle are doing that you want to round up, you can toss them in the air and they will give you advance view of where they are.

Mark Mills:You can see the terrain better. You know that kind of feature is what military has developed. You’ll still be on a horse and you’ll still use a horse, but you’ll have some additional technology that will allow you to be more effective, and in many respects, safer.

John DeBevoise:We’re talking with Mark Mills, the author of Work in the Age of Robots. So folks, your jobs really aren’t so much in jeopardy, especially if you are the entrepreneur and you’re listening to this program for the tips, tools and techniques. Understand that it’s opportunity that’s in front of you with the advancement of technology.

John DeBevoise:Sit back, look at your situation, understood what the challenges are, and then see how you can address them. And if you’ve got an idea, widget, gidget or gadget, well, get in touch with Bizness Soup Talk Radio, because we help you through our website and our network, get your idea from between your ears onto paper, into product and distribution. Because you know what? Distribution is the most important part of any business. Without it, you’ve got nothing.

John DeBevoise:Mark, in conclusion, as to some of the prognostications, and my favorite is from Elon Musk talking about how the robots are going to take over, just how realistic is that? Or is Elon using his sense of humor to tease us even more?

Mark Mills:Well, first, let me stipulate. Elon Musk is one of the entrepreneurs I admire, because he’s doing something few take on. He’s taken on hardware.

John DeBevoise:Yes.

Mark Mills:Like cars, spaceships, batteries. This is a tough domain. Most entrepreneurs are taking on, in Silicon Valley, software and apps for gaming. That’s nice and it’s fun, but it isn’t very hard. What he’s doing is admirable, and he certainly has a penchant for the hyperbole.

Mark Mills:I don’t know what’s in his head when he says things that he’s said about robots taking away all the jobs. Maybe this is what he’s thinking. And I don’t know the man, and I’m not a psychiatrist. I’m a physicist. So I can’t pretend to be one.

Mark Mills:Let me suggest he’s saying something which … or extrapolating from something which is true. The Luddites, which is the most famous example of opposition to automation that’s in the literature we all see in school. The Luddites were right, right?

Mark Mills:They lost their jobs. They lost their jobs. The automated loom took away the job of the manual weaver. And Eli Whitney took away the jobs of hand cotton pickers. So the specific claim that automation eliminates jobs is true. It does eliminate a specific job.

Mark Mills:But as we’ve discussed, and most people have recognized, it creates net more jobs. It has for hundreds of years. The claim that Elon Musk seems to be making is that the robots are going to get so good that there won’t be net new jobs. It’s sort of odd.

Mark Mills:I don’t know why he’d say that. But even if there were no jobs in manufacturing, let’s say, they’re all robots, there’ll still be jobs to do something else. Let’s say the something else was just entertainment. The entertainment industry itself involves manufacturing stuff and operating stuff, servicing stuff.

Mark Mills:People make a lot of money in entertainment, as I mentioned earlier. It’s become an industry that’s more than a trillion dollars of economic activity. Entertaining people, there’s nothing wrong with entertaining people.

Mark Mills:Healthcare is an enormous industry which will be very hands-on for a long time. There’s nothing wrong with healthcare becoming a major employer, other than worrying about it being a major part of the economy. It’s a wonderful thing that it’s becoming a major part of the economy.

Mark Mills:That’s a gift of a wealthy economy, and it’ll employ lots of people, and they won’t all be doctors. They’ll be doing all kinds of things, relating to the technologies that make keeping us healthy easier and better.

John DeBevoise:Well, I happen to be one of those as well that admires Elon’s mind and I also enjoy his sense of humor, launching his roadster into space with a space man in it.

Mark Mills:I know. That was great.

John DeBevoise:That was just spectacular. Mark, I want to thank you for joining us on this serving of Bizness Soup. Mark Mills, Work in the Age of Robots, available on Amazon.

John DeBevoise:And if you’d like one, give us a shout-out to bizsoup.com, get the five points of a successful business: the idea, the plan, the people, the execution, and the solution. Take away any one of those, and your business will fail. You can get that at bizsoup.com, B-I-Z-S-O-U-P dot com. Mark, thanks for joining us on this serving of Bizness Soup.

Mark Mills:My pleasure. Thank you.

John DeBevoise:This has been another serving of Bizness Soup, where business comes from business. I’m John DeBevoise, inviting you to visit the website for more servings of what is best in business.